Fivethirtyeight predictions

Updated Nov. We'll be updating our forecasts every time new data is available, every day through Nov. Our win probabilities come from simulating the election 20, times, which produces a distribution of possible outcomes for each state.

Here are the expected margins of victory. The closer the dot is to the center line, the tighter the race. And the wider the bar, the less certain the model is about the outcome. Sign up. Here's a map of the country, with each state sized by its number of electoral votes and shaded by the leading candidate's chance of winning it.

A candidate needs at least electoral votes to clinch the White House. In each of our simulations, we forecast the states and note the number of electoral votes each candidate wins. That gives us a distribution for each candidate, where the tallest bar is the outcome that occurred most frequently. Our model produces a distribution of outcomes for the national popular vote. The curves will get narrower as the election gets closer and our forecasts become more confident.

2020 Election

Forecast models by Nate Silver. Research by Jennifer Kanjana and Dhrumil Mehta.

Nate Silver Predicts Clinton Wins Election Against Trump

Candidate portraits by Kristina Micotti. Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Download CSV of polls. Our model is mostly based on state polls, but national polls inform various steps of its calculations, such as the trend line adjustment, house effects adjustment and demographic regression. We update our forecast with new polls as they are released. Here are the polls we added in each update. Who will win the presidency? Chance of winning.

Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Electoral votes Electoral votes. How the forecast has changed We'll be updating our forecasts every time new data is available, every day through Nov. Chance of winning Win prob.How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. This forecast is based onsimulations of the season and updates after each game. Download data.

Design and development by Jay Boice and Gus Wezerek. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver. Updated Oct. Nationals, Astros, Yankees Cardinals Dodgers Twins Braves Rays Red Sox. White Sox. Blue Jays. Forecast from. Today Oct. Related Stories. Get more FiveThirtyEight.The chart shows how many delegates, on average, each candidate is projected to have pledged to them at each point in the primary season, along with a range of possible delegate counts.

Welcome to our new Democratic primary forecast. Predicting the primaries is a tricky business. See something you think is wrong?

fivethirtyeight predictions

Send us an email. Forecast model by Nate Silver. Illustrations by Fabio Buonocore. Download polls. Download forecast: today ; all dates. National view National view. Current pledged delegates Sanders. Current pledged delegates Biden. Current pledged delegates Bloomberg. Bernie Sanders dropped out April 8, making Joe Biden the presumptive nominee.

We will continue to add results from the ongoing primaries, but this forecast has stopped updating. How does FiveThirtyEight forecast elections? See more from FiveThirtyEight on. Iowa forecast and results Iowa voted on Feb. New Hampshire forecast and results New Hampshire voted on Feb. Nevada forecast and results Nevada voted on Feb. South Carolina forecast and results South Carolina voted on Feb.

California forecast and results California voted on March 3rd. Texas forecast and results Texas voted on March 3rd. North Carolina forecast and results North Carolina voted on March 3rd. Virginia forecast and results Virginia voted on March 3rd. Massachusetts forecast and results Massachusetts voted on March 3rd. Minnesota forecast and results Minnesota voted on March 3rd.

Colorado forecast and results Colorado voted on March 3rd. Tennessee forecast and results Tennessee voted on March 3rd. Alabama forecast and results Alabama voted on March 3rd. Oklahoma forecast and results Oklahoma voted on March 3rd. Arkansas forecast and results Arkansas voted on March 3rd. Utah forecast and results Utah voted on March 3rd.What's it like to drive BMW's futuristic all-electric family car.

We put the improved i3S to the test With the government desperate to get as many drivers to ditch diesel and buy electric cars, it's about time there was a zero-emission model that we can all live with. Beat the mind tricks that make you poorer: How our brains are wired so we pay off the wrong debts and sell shares at the worst time Should you find yourself putting off renewing your home insurance until tomorrow, or feeling confused by compound interest, you can blame evolution.

We explain how they can make you richer, how they work and why you might be getting them without even realising And don't think that you have to be a big investor to be affected by dividends. We explain how they work and can make you richer Should you hang on for cheaper mortgage rates. Experts predict a best buy bonanza before Christmas Homeowners have been rushing to switching their mortgage to a cheaper deal after the Bank of England raised interest rates last month - but better deals could be imminent.

Why binary options trading was branded Britain's 'biggest investment con' by Which. All investment is risky but some propositions amp up the stakes to levels akin to slot machines in Las Vegas. We reveal the ten hotspots and the occupations most likely to be caught Analysis of more than 7 million insurance quotes by comparison MoneySuperMarket has revealed which location has the most drivers with over-the-limit convictions in the last 12 months and also highlighted the occupations with the most drink and drug drivers in the country.

Lamborghini reveals its ultimate 4x4: The 190mph Urus SUV that's more powerful than a McLaren F1 and will beat a Ferrari F40 in a sprint to 62mph The Lamborghini Urus follows in the footsteps of the 1986 LM002, and the Italian exotic car maker has dropped a colossally powerful engine into a 4x4 to create an offroad family vehicle that will be able to blitz just about everything that comes into its path.

Best credit cards to use this Christmas: How to boost rewards, spread the cost and avoid the traps While Christmas gives many a great day and holiday period to look forward to, it's also one of the most expensive times of year for most families.

Read our full best bank accounts round-up Investing Show: Buy unloved banks, not expensive beer - how to invest for higher inflation Investing for a low inflation world has paid off handsomely in recent years, as defensive shares with a reliable dividend have seen their prices rise substantially.

The first-time buyer's mortgage guide WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT YOUR MONEY. A quick guide to retirement saving. Tips on what to think about What next for interest rates. Bank of England raises base rate back to 0. Ten tips for buy-to-let: the essential advice for property investors For many buy-to-let looks an attractive income investment in a time of low rates and stock market volatility. Read This is Money's top ten buy-to-let tips 334 comments 1 video 1.

Compare your pay to the national average and see whether your employer treated you to a pay rise in line with the the rest of your profession. How to profit from technology and hunt for the next consumer stars like Fever-Tree 'Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful', said Warren Buffett. Which should investors be right now. As house prices slow and tax hikes bite, is buy-to-let still worth doing.

How to invest and achieve long-term returns that beat inflation and low savings rates 'Private investors have an advantage': Gervais Williams's tips to pick the best small company shares Britain is leaving the EU, but should Brexit-hit investors go the other way. Are stockmarkets too expensive to invest right now. Should you invest in India. It's not fixed yet, warns Tom Becket Tips to choose the best funds for your Isa Can you profit from the growing Chinese middle-class.

We meet Fidelity China Special Situations manager Dale Nicholls adverts. We put the improved i3S to the test. Can I leave the British Steel pension scheme. My state pension is made up of basic, Serps and graduated parts: why do they increase at different annual rates. I'm retired but bored - would going back to work part-time hit my pension payouts. Why must I pay big fees to a financial adviser to move my pension.

How do I ensure my children inherit my pension if I die young.BundesligaUnion Berlin - Dynamo Dresden2. BundesligaBraunschweig - Holstein KielScottish Premier LeagueHibernian - Celtic7. Truiden - WaregemSerie AMilan - Bologna1. Negative numbers show profitable bets on home win, positive numbers on away win. Bet on bold teams. League13:307Vestel Manisaspor Altinordu SK2.

Division15:00-14Nea Salamina Aris Limassol 2. HNL15:002NK Lokomotiva Zagreb HNK Hajduk Split3. Division16:0012Olympiakos Nikosia AEK Larnaca8. BoldTeam has higher odds than expected and is underrated. You will often notice that advised teams have a losing streak or are in general doing worse than expected.

This Football Prediction uses the new money flow in betting to our advantage. Atletico Madrid are likely. The Basque outfit are on a six-game winless run in the Spanish top flight at the moment and, as a result, they dropped to the danger zone in the standings.

The Yellow Submarine aim to make amends for back-to-back defeats to the likes of Sevilla and Leganes and a win over Barcelona would see them retain their spot in top six. The Mussi Volanti have been having their ups and downs in the Serie A this season and they sit in the middle of the table ahead of Matchday 16. Chievo Verona are a real force to be reckoned with at home and you should bear in mind that they are ey.

The Neapolitans dropped to second place in the standings, but a win over the Viola would see them regain first place in the table. The Partenopei need to get back on course as soon as possible and we predict.

As expected, SPAL suffered a 3-1 loss to Roma at Stadio Olimpico, but it has to be noted that the newcomers were with ten men on the field for more than 80 minutes. The Biancazzurri extended their winless run in the Serie A to four games, but a win over Verona could see them escape the relegat.

The Zebrette sit in the danger zone in the standings ahead of the visit of Benevento, but they are widely expected to pick up all three points from the match. The Neroverdi do not seem to be on top of their game at the moment and they suffered five defeats in previous six league fixtures. The Rossoneri dropped to eighth place in the Serie A standings and, as things stand now, they are unlikely to win their first Scudetto since 2011.

Koln Freiburg Koln were on the verge of suffering a 2-1 loss to Schalke 04 at Veltins Arena, but they eventually scored a late equalizer and picked up one point from the match.I searched for a way, but no luck.

Should I use another service for that feature. Great article, but I did not set up reviews as all my items are one of a kind antique etc and when it is sold it is removed is there a way to set up reviews for the store or web site. We share many of these tips with enterprise software vendors to help them drive high-quality reviews on our site, G2Crowd.

Reviews like these are both a great way for customers to share their feedback and an invaluable resource for vendors. Good points Anupam, faking testimonials are never worth it. In addition to sounding genuine, they could give you invaluable feedback for perfecting your product and even improving your shopping experience. View all posts by Megan O'Brien Amaznreview.

2016 Election Forecast

Akhilesh I want to improve review our product. Lacey Lybecker Can you reply to a review in Bigcommerce. Gail Lause Great article, but I did not set up reviews as all my items are one of a kind antique etc and when it is sold it is removed is there a way to set up reviews for the store or web site. Julie Neumann Great feedback Mohare, thank you for sharing. Julie Neumann Good points Anupam, faking testimonials are never worth it.

fivethirtyeight predictions

Anupam Bonanthaya Megan, nice tips. Let us future-proof your backend. You focus on building your brand. In fact, social proof is one of the key elements in building an awesome brand. An experiment conducted by American social psychologist, Stanley Milgram, further proves the power of social proof. Milgram and his team gathered a group of people to stop in a busy street and look up at the sixth floor of an office nearby where nothing was happening. In this post, we unveil 5 clever ways to obtain the right reviews that persuade your customers and lead to increased sales.

How does Ramit Sethi, author of the New York Times bestselling book I Will Teach You To Be Rich, achieve conversion rates as high as 68. Contrary to most marketers, he will actually ask subscribers to unsubscribe from his email list.

As someone who charges a premium for his course material, he wants to weed out those who treat his content as a commodity. For example, as your customers are using your product, send a simple email asking if they were at first pessimistic of the product.

If they were, then you can ask for the actual results that they were able to achieve along with detailed objections that your customers had before choosing your product or service.

Gary Vaynerchuk has a great talk about the ROI of Social Media and he compares to the ROI of your mother. She knew what you liked, what you hated, and when to give you some time.

She never asked for anything back. She only loved you like any good mother does without ever needing or wanting anything from you only for you to be your best. Tony Hseih, CEO of Zappos, built a billion dollar company based on this theory. Early on, Zappos understood the power of word-of-mouth marketing and made it a company focus to provide excellent customer service no matter the costs. In the end, we need to stop treating customers like metrics and more like people.Spread betting An overview of what IG offers for spread bettors of varying expertise What is spread betting.

More infoWe have professional tipsters, whose performance is beyond any doubt. In addition we incorporate an indicator (SCORE) that grades many aspects of the quality of their forecasts to help you select the best ones. More informationMore informationAll you need to know to take advantage of our services and detailed explanations to make you an expertIf you have any doubt about any of the concepts described in the academy, you can submit us your questionsSign up Our mobile apps fit the needs of all our customers and maximizes the speed when receiving forecasts.

You will be able to place different bets before the odds drop, thanks to the speed of the system we have developed. Picks Standings Help Academy Website Handbook Blog And More. Hurry up, time is money. Picks 3rd Place your bet Forget about placing your Pinnacle bets using our automatic betting tool Autobetting 4th Win with Inbetsment The work of our tipsters guarantees you success Why Inbetsment.

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fivethirtyeight predictions

Join us to receive the best tips Sign up Get our betting tips throught InAlerts App Our mobile apps fit the needs of all our customers and maximizes the speed when receiving forecasts. And what better way to get Low-scoring in the big game, but Degsy fancies Lacazette to score first and Liverpool and West Ham to win.

Wins for Man Utd (to nil), Spurs (while conceding) and Man City (but not by loads). When you're waiting on Scotland to score, they don't. When you're waiting on Scotland not to score. Scoring goals while wearing vests, it really is a thug life for Degsy Bilton.

Still, Liverpool sorted him out Plus Arsenal to beat Chelsea, Man United to score but concede and Spurs to drop points at 'Boro. He's already bagged winnings from the Liverpool win so you might want to listen to his other tips. We'll have a flutter on some season bets, so why not let Daniel Storey offer some help. Warning: He's an idiot. From most-used XIs to most-expensive XIs, to longest losing streaks and backs.

It's Mourinho v Guardiola again. Allardyce referred to the "pure genius of the movement and the quality of the players". Jose Mourinho will be able to call on Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Phil Jones and Nemanja Matic for the derby We open with a fantastic email on CL minnows, and it hardly tails off.


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